Hemp in Danger: Who Stands to Gain as 2026 Ban Threatens a $28 Billion Industry?

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Hemp and cannabis have been a divisive topic for decades, having flip-flopped between levels of legalization since the early 1900s. The crop was federally classified as a Schedule I drug (considered to have no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse) under the Controlled Substances Act in 1970. In 1996, California became the first state to legalize medical cannabis with the approval of Proposition 215. By 2012, 14 states had instituted the use of medical marijuana, and several states began legalizing recreational use, starting with Colorado and Washington.

Fast forward to 2018 and the passage of the 2018 Farm Bill, which legalized  hemp-derived products that contained les than 0.3% delta-9 THC. Since then, the hemp industry has become a booming industry, providing over 300,000 jobs for farmers, manufacturers and retailers and generating more than $28 billion in sales. But that could all change in November 2026, thanks to a hemp ban that was tucked into a funding bill to reopen the government. It imposes a strict 0.4-milligram total of THC per container limit for final products, in addition to the 0.3% THC cap on a dry weight basis.

Industry groups warn that up to 95% of the current hemp‑cannabinoid product market would be removed should this go into effect. States with the largest hemp infrastructures, such as Kentucky, Texas and Utah, are likely to face the steepest economic fallout. This comes at a time when U.S. agriculture is already struggling with elements like labor shortages and climate-related crop shortages — making the potential consequences even more dire.

In the past few years, beverages have made huge strides within the consumable cannabis and hemp sector. According to market research, the global cannabis beverages market size was valued at $1.16 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $3.86 billion in 2030. In a 2022 interview, Curaleaf founder Boris Jordan said he expected a full 50% of the cannabis industry to come from beverages.

Already, hemp-infused brands like MixMix, Louie Louie and Cann have become prevalent enough that major mainstream retailers like Total Wine, Circle K and even Target sell them. The consequences of a potential ban will have large-scale financial implications for retailers.

The implications of a ban hit all levels of the supply chain: ingredient manufacturers like Vertosa, product developers like Ley Line Labs and bottle shops and retailers. Projects will be put on hold due to the uncertainty of the situation. Ingredient manufacturers risk losing their main ingredient and the core of their business becoming unsellable.

Independent retailers from dispensaries and wellness stores to bodegas see substantial sales from hemp-based products and may have to pull products from shelves within the year, sacrificing costs paid to stock the shelves and losing future sales.

Who Stands to Gain From the Hemp Ban?

The question naturally arises: Who stands to benefit from a ban when so many stand to lose? Senator Mitch McConnell has argued that a ban is necessary to “keep it out of the hands of children,” citing the presence of hemp-derived vapes, drinks and gummies in gas stations and corner stores.

But the public pressure from alcohol trade groups and the fact that this proposal was inserted into a spending bill raise important questions about the true motivations behind the push for a ban.

With alcohol sales declining over the past several years, due in part to the rise of hemp-infused beverages, it’s reasonable to ask whether alcohol trade groups are targeting hemp drinks simply because they can. Several alcohol industry trade groups have submitted letters urging Congress to remove hemp-based THC products from the market. It’s fair to suggest that under the banner of cracking down on “bad actors,” the alcohol industry may also be seeking to control and profit from the hemp-infused beverage category. It doesn’t have to be one motive or the other; it can be all of them at once: seeing the category as a threat, wanting it regulated and wanting to participate in it financially. While that may feel like cognitive dissonance, shifting landscapes often turn competitors into collaborators when there is enough economic incentive.

What deserves more attention is that hemp industry stakeholders are united in calling for regulation for the same reason a ban was put in — largely out of concern for public safety.

“If sweeping restrictions move forward, it won’t be the bad actors who disappear,” Jammie Treadwell, CEO of hemp manufacturer Treadwell Farms, said, according to The Guardian.

A practical regulatory framework already exists: the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau. As the federal bureau responsible for regulating, taxing and overseeing alcohol and tobacco, the TTB can be expanded to include hemp and cannabis. Many of the existing rules for alcohol and tobacco sales, taxation and safety could be adapted to cover recreational (non-medical) hemp and cannabis consumables.

The coming year will likely bring significant uncertainty for thousands of entrepreneurs and employees whose livelihoods could be affected by the proposed ban. If you’d like to take a more active role in the conversation, consider connecting with advocacy groups such as the U.S. Hemp Roundtable, who are working to protect responsible operators and shape fair regulation. You can also consider supporting small businesses and these brands by shopping at locally operated retailers.